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   Future Of Browsers - Business Model Perspective

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  • From: "Jim Garrett (NAVIX)" <jgarrett@navix.net>
  • To: <xml-dev@ic.ac.uk>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Aug 1998 09:42:31 -0500

The "Future of Browsers" from a business model perspective.

FACT: There are so many people who do not have computers
but do have televisions, will cause the following to occur.

1.) Mass in numbers = massive potential market demand for information
2.) They all want email like everyone else.
3.) They want access to web information like everyone else.
4.) The "Industry Cable and Telephone" entities will compete
    with each other to tap that market and deliver a
    hardware solution that is not a traditional desktop.
5.) Example:
    Omaha, NE has 2 true service providers to everyone's
    house. COX cable is 30 percent complete in true fiber
    to the user, and will be offering all the services
    (local phone, long distance, 2way-cable, xDSL internet).
    U.S.West is the local teleco and has experimented w/
    fiber in West Omaha and gave it up because of their
    shortsightedness. But U.S.West can't afford to lose
    the Omaha subscriber base so will be forced to compete.
6.) The above example will provide a model for all the others
    to ramp up high speed internet access, using HDTV set top
    boxes that will run a new OS. Which will cause developers
    to target that OS at mass quantities.
7.) This will cause a major vacuum and we all know what that
8.) Therefore the Future of Browsers is still transforming
    itself until you have fulfilled all potential web access
    and email demand. The OS and browser that captures the most
    customer base will absolutely affect the future browser structure.
9.) True real-time 30 fps video/audio consumption and production will
    occur within that hardware structure and standards will be pushed
    out and all browsers will conform to item #9.
10.) Digital T.V.'s will be physically separated out into 2 parts.
     The tuner slash computer and the display. Allowing owners to
     upgrade their tuner slash computer while keeping their 16x9 digital
     thin panel display's.
11.) Currently MPEG2 encoders/decoders can deliver item #9 at 6.5MB/sec.
     Current uses are distance learning....current cost of hardware
     MPEG2 encoder/decoders is $15,000. per channel. High end Pentium II's
     can decode on the fly, so Pentium II class desktop tuner/computer's
     can sub for the decoder's.
12.) This will allow home's and buildings and vehicles and individuals
     to be permanently linked to the net, and allow people to interface
     in real time to each other, their home, their business, no matter
     where they are.
13.) Finally, the information revolution will have peaked out and
     information appliances will be as common and as mundane as the touch
     tone telephone is to us today.
14.) And all the accumulation of wealth that comes from being a proactive
     information market miner will be exhausted, similarly as the Gold Rush
     day's of the later 19th century.

This is how I see the overall view of the future of browsers....within that
overall framework...you all doing all the current XML research will provide
the structure for those who use XML to create content for the current stage
of the ongoing information revolution...

JD Garrett

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