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   Re: Future Of Browsers - Business Model Perspective

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  • From: Dave Winer <dave@userland.com>
  • To: xml-dev@ic.ac.uk
  • Date: Wed, 26 Aug 1998 08:11:01 -0700

>>FACT: There are so many people who do not have computers but do have
televisions, will cause the following to occur.

The web may be more ubiquitous than you think:


Study: 1/3 of U.S. adults on Internet 
Women over 50 among fastest-growing group online 


At 09:42 AM 8/26/98 -0500, you wrote:
>The "Future of Browsers" from a business model perspective.
>FACT: There are so many people who do not have computers
>but do have televisions, will cause the following to occur.
>1.) Mass in numbers = massive potential market demand for information
>2.) They all want email like everyone else.
>3.) They want access to web information like everyone else.
>4.) The "Industry Cable and Telephone" entities will compete
>    with each other to tap that market and deliver a
>    hardware solution that is not a traditional desktop.
>5.) Example:
>    Omaha, NE has 2 true service providers to everyone's
>    house. COX cable is 30 percent complete in true fiber
>    to the user, and will be offering all the services
>    (local phone, long distance, 2way-cable, xDSL internet).
>    U.S.West is the local teleco and has experimented w/
>    fiber in West Omaha and gave it up because of their
>    shortsightedness. But U.S.West can't afford to lose
>    the Omaha subscriber base so will be forced to compete.
>6.) The above example will provide a model for all the others
>    to ramp up high speed internet access, using HDTV set top
>    boxes that will run a new OS. Which will cause developers
>    to target that OS at mass quantities.
>7.) This will cause a major vacuum and we all know what that
>    causes.
>8.) Therefore the Future of Browsers is still transforming
>    itself until you have fulfilled all potential web access
>    and email demand. The OS and browser that captures the most
>    customer base will absolutely affect the future browser structure.
>9.) True real-time 30 fps video/audio consumption and production will
>    occur within that hardware structure and standards will be pushed
>    out and all browsers will conform to item #9.
>10.) Digital T.V.'s will be physically separated out into 2 parts.
>     The tuner slash computer and the display. Allowing owners to
>     upgrade their tuner slash computer while keeping their 16x9 digital
>     thin panel display's.
>11.) Currently MPEG2 encoders/decoders can deliver item #9 at 6.5MB/sec.
>     Current uses are distance learning....current cost of hardware
>     MPEG2 encoder/decoders is $15,000. per channel. High end Pentium II's
>     can decode on the fly, so Pentium II class desktop tuner/computer's
>     can sub for the decoder's.
>12.) This will allow home's and buildings and vehicles and individuals
>     to be permanently linked to the net, and allow people to interface
>     in real time to each other, their home, their business, no matter
>     where they are.
>13.) Finally, the information revolution will have peaked out and
>     information appliances will be as common and as mundane as the touch
>     tone telephone is to us today.
>14.) And all the accumulation of wealth that comes from being a proactive
>     information market miner will be exhausted, similarly as the Gold Rush
>     day's of the later 19th century.
>This is how I see the overall view of the future of browsers....within that
>overall framework...you all doing all the current XML research will provide
>the structure for those who use XML to create content for the current stage
>of the ongoing information revolution...
>JD Garrett
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