xml-dev - RE: Future Of Browsers - Business Model Perspective

["Jim Garrett (NAVIX)" <jgarrett@navix.net>]

Dave:

The study of course also shows that 2/3 are not  yet
on.  Using the 2/3 raw number thought....
for sake of argument....then 66 percent of those
in the study are not yet on the internet....

Which means that the potential market is huge...

The issue is, that since DTV (digital television) is
fast approaching and will be here in it's most expensive
form in 4th quarter '98, the computer tuner in box outside
of the TV display will cause many to decide..do I spend
$1500 to $2000 on a computer and have an old analog t.v.
or do I spend $1500 to $2000 on a new digital television
that has a computer/tuner box that can get email and browse
the web.

T.V. people do not want to sit upright at a desk in a chair
when they can do this from a new digital display from the
comfort of their sofa's...

TV tuner computer manufacturers will build central
storage for these new digital t.v. tuner computer owners,
similar to hotmail.com.

They will also build in central processing as well, driving
the network computer into the home television.

I just see a massive shift about to occur because home
users will have to make a purchasing choice when it comes
to digital television upgrade.

They won't be buying both a new digital t.v. tuner/computer
w/ external display and a computer...
1.) when they can only fund one of the two...
2.) both devices will do email and surf the web...

This being said....even people who now have computers will
be tossing out their computers and moving to digital t.v.
tuner computers making the market for the new digital t.v.
tuner computer O.S. even larger than the 66 percent who
are not surfing now.

Digital Television can break the back of many computer
hardware/software developers now if they don't get set
for the PHASE II of the information revolution...

JD Garrett

> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-xml-dev@ic.ac.uk [mailto:owner-xml-dev@ic.ac.uk]On Behalf Of
> Dave Winer
> Sent: Wednesday, August 26, 1998 10:11 AM
> To: xml-dev@ic.ac.uk
> Subject: Re: Future Of Browsers - Business Model Perspective
>
>
> >>FACT: There are so many people who do not have computers but do have
> televisions, will cause the following to occur.
>
> The web may be more ubiquitous than you think:
>
> http://www.msnbc.com/news/190591.asp
>
> Study: 1/3 of U.S. adults on Internet
>
> Women over 50 among fastest-growing group online
>
> Dave
>
>
> At 09:42 AM 8/26/98 -0500, you wrote:
> >The "Future of Browsers" from a business model perspective.
> >
> >FACT: There are so many people who do not have computers
> >but do have televisions, will cause the following to occur.
> >
> >1.) Mass in numbers = massive potential market demand for information
> >access.
> >2.) They all want email like everyone else.
> >3.) They want access to web information like everyone else.
> >4.) The "Industry Cable and Telephone" entities will compete
> >    with each other to tap that market and deliver a
> >    hardware solution that is not a traditional desktop.
> >5.) Example:
> >    Omaha, NE has 2 true service providers to everyone's
> >    house. COX cable is 30 percent complete in true fiber
> >    to the user, and will be offering all the services
> >    (local phone, long distance, 2way-cable, xDSL internet).
> >    U.S.West is the local teleco and has experimented w/
> >    fiber in West Omaha and gave it up because of their
> >    shortsightedness. But U.S.West can't afford to lose
> >    the Omaha subscriber base so will be forced to compete.
> >6.) The above example will provide a model for all the others
> >    to ramp up high speed internet access, using HDTV set top
> >    boxes that will run a new OS. Which will cause developers
> >    to target that OS at mass quantities.
> >7.) This will cause a major vacuum and we all know what that
> >    causes.
> >8.) Therefore the Future of Browsers is still transforming
> >    itself until you have fulfilled all potential web access
> >    and email demand. The OS and browser that captures the most
> >    customer base will absolutely affect the future browser structure.
> >9.) True real-time 30 fps video/audio consumption and production will
> >    occur within that hardware structure and standards will be pushed
> >    out and all browsers will conform to item #9.
> >10.) Digital T.V.'s will be physically separated out into 2 parts.
> >     The tuner slash computer and the display. Allowing owners to
> >     upgrade their tuner slash computer while keeping their 16x9 digital
> >     thin panel display's.
> >11.) Currently MPEG2 encoders/decoders can deliver item #9 at 6.5MB/sec.
> >     Current uses are distance learning....current cost of hardware
> >     MPEG2 encoder/decoders is $15,000. per channel. High end
> Pentium II's
> >     can decode on the fly, so Pentium II class desktop tuner/computer's
> >     can sub for the decoder's.
> >12.) This will allow home's and buildings and vehicles and individuals
> >     to be permanently linked to the net, and allow people to interface
> >     in real time to each other, their home, their business, no matter
> >     where they are.
> >13.) Finally, the information revolution will have peaked out and
> >     information appliances will be as common and as mundane as the touch
> >     tone telephone is to us today.
> >14.) And all the accumulation of wealth that comes from being a proactive
> >     information market miner will be exhausted, similarly as
> the Gold Rush
> >     day's of the later 19th century.
> >
> >This is how I see the overall view of the future of
> browsers....within that
> >overall framework...you all doing all the current XML research
> will provide
> >the structure for those who use XML to create content for the
> current stage
> >of the ongoing information revolution...
> >
> >JD Garrett
> >
> >
> >
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