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There is such a thing as getting to the battle too early
while all the resources and the combatants are still getting
positioned. See the history of Nimitz and Halsey in the
South Pacific, WWII.
It is often bad to be the first penguin. It assumes all
the risks for the same number of fish. It is safer
to be the last penguin, but the risk is that all of the fish
will be eaten. Better to be the third penguin. Little
risk and no guilt for pushing the first penguin in. The
second penguin can't eat all the fish that fast.
Timing and position are market and business
judgement decisions. Vision and technology are trade.
len
From: Dan Mabbutt [mailto:Seigfried@msn.com]
> "What is to be done" is that we have to "sell" (literally or
> figuratively) the tools by pointing to the successful
> applications that they built, not by appealing to the fear
> of not being on the Next Big Thing bandwagon.
Yeah ... very true ... but there is something to be said for the value of
actual vision in management too.
I had the dubious priviledge of doing the very first demo of the web that
the President of a mid-sized company I worked for had ever seen. I was using
a 300 Baud dialup connection through a local university, and there wasn't a
great deal to be seen. (Our state government had a very nice site and I
found a few companies in our business with informational sites.) But, of
course, pages took a long time to load and I had to reconnect a few times
during the demo.
I can still remember the guy basically saying, "This will never catch on.
The whole thing is a waste of money." Later, the company had to purchase
their URL because somebody else registered it first.
We can blame ourselves for not selling the idea well enough. (Which is
certainly true much of the time ... I still wonder if I could have done a
better job in the demo.) Or we can choose to work with people who DO have
vision.
"You pays you money and you takes you chances!"
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