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Hi Bryan,
Brian said:
The usage of Beta vs. VHS as an example of this would be proper in what
should be seen as an insignificant change had widely divergent results
in the success of the formats. If for example Bob Jones investing in VHS
equipment three days later results in a totally new format being the
winner.
Although I understand that Economics has examples with which the
butterfly effect is analogous, I doubt that Beta vs VHS could be a good
one of these.
Didier replies:
Usually, the butterfly effect is associated to chaotic systems having one or
several attractor. I do not know if the VHS/Beta problem maps to a chaotic
systems dynamics but for sure I know that it maps very well to a percolation
dynamics. The book "tipping point" explains in simple words what a
percolation phenomenon is from the social perspective (but not from the
mathematical point of view). Since web phenomenons are not easily (as far as
my knowledge goes) modeled by state spaces, they are more easily modeled
with network and percolation theory.
Cheers
Didier PH Martin
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