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I think your view is too optimistic/visionary.
I'd split your advanced (step 2) into two parts:
For example, the basic security mechanisms (SAML, maybe XACML,
DSIG, Encryption, WS-Seucrity) and some messaging (notification)
are pretty much done. The multiparty stuff (choregraphy, federation,
most of ws-xxx, etc) isn't.
I'm skeptical about ever achieving 2B, let alone your #3 and $4. :)
Rich Salz Chief Security Architect
DataPower Technology http://www.datapower.com
XS40 XML Security Gateway http://www.datapower.com/products/xs40.html
XML Security Overview http://www.datapower.com/xmldev/xmlsecurity.html