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   RE: [xml-dev] The Future of HTML and Internet Explorer

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True and we are all in a tricky position.  HTML 
won't go away though.  It will still be the easiest 
way to do some ubiquitous tasks, but it becomes 
less of a requirement for application building.

1.  Not nearly as many middle tier vendors have 
migrated to the web as some would believe.  There 
are a lot of fat-client/local hard disk applications 
both in the field and in production.  Performance, 
security, lack of good QBE features, etc. have held 
back the web.  Not everyone voted with their feet 
in the way CNet.com might lead one to believe.

2.  The migration onto the web has been occurring 
in some of these markets in the edge applications. 
In other words, wherever an application really does 
need extraprise communications, HTTP, UDP, FTP and 
so on are used.  But wall to wall, it hasn't made 
good sense.  The browser never won; it just got 
Bacchus's seat at the tabletop in webValhalla.

3.  .Net and managed code change that but not because 
the problems were fixed but that the underlying framework 
was reworked in the direction of the web by making XML 
ubiquitous and service-oriented development a requirement.  
Longhorn completes that rework.  It forces the hand of the middle tier 
vendors who now MUST begin a massive rebuilding of 
their soon-to-be legacies that were last year's demoWowsers. 
On the other hand, Longhorn seems to provide a middle 
ground between the web architecture and the local LAN 
desktop environment.  It's always been obvious that 
the web architecture was not an overarching all consuming 
architecture for all computing applications everywhere 
all the time.  It's network plumbing plus some syntax 
that is cheap and convenient to use.  It reduced the 
surface area for building large distributed hypermedia 
systems, and that's fantastic.  It is not the final solution 
for app building.  In Longhorn, the URI is not a requirement 
for navigation.  Even the navigation object isn't a requirement. 
The state persistence capabilities improve.  Business rules 
don't have to live on the server.  There are options and 
we have to be smart about applying these.

4.  At the same time, Longhorm gives middle tier some breathing room. 
RFPs that have been insisting on last year's .Net or a 
'web-browser only' application will be pushed back because 
rightly, the middle tier can respond, 'if we do that 
we have to replace it in three years', so the need to 
accelerate web applications is less even if the need to 
master some new languages and a new framework is more. 
This changes the rules of the game.

Even as the IT budgets have gotten smaller, in three 
years, some of that will turn around (the economies will 
rebound) and the time to buy completely new state of the 
art systems will be fairly close to exactly when Longhorn 
is ready for prime time.  The target for nextGen systems 
just moved out three years and can have a very different 
character than that predicted by many not very well 
read bloggers.

That is why I say to the opponents of Longhorn: Threats 
and howling about openness won't do more than stir up 
the dust.  While you still have time, open up the documents 
and begin to figure out what is good about the architecture. 
If the reply is, "Absolutely nothing" (War, what is it good for!) 
then selah.  But if you bet wrong, it will be a potentially 
fatal bet.  So I'd drop the time wasting Spy Vs Spy 
stuff and buckle down to some serious analysis.

"It don't matter what you think if you're drinking bad water".


From: Didier PH Martin [mailto:martind@netfolder.com]

Hi Len,

Len said:
You need the right technology, the right sales 
pitch, and yes, some innovation.  Threats get 
you absolutely nothing this time because  
technology companies are going to refuse to go along 
with a campaign that leaves them less competitive.

Didier replies:
May I add also that less cash than in the 90s is available.

Didier PH Martin


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